Summer-autumn-winter-spring: the Italian electricity market is the most expensive in Europe

2023-11-15

For the week of November 13, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting forecasts, solar energy production will increase in Spain and Italy.

Main European electricity markets

In the second week of November, weekly averages of prices on electricity markets were below €100/MWh in most of the European countries analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting. The British and Italian markets were exceptions, where the averages were 107.11 €/MWh and 121.54 €/MWh respectively.

For the third consecutive week, the Portuguese and Spanish markets recorded the lowest average prices, €56.90/MWh and €57.11/MWh respectively.

In the week of November 6, prices in the main European electricity markets showed an upward trend compared to the previous week, but with different trends, which reflect different energy mixes and different national policies in the energy field.

“The MIBEL market of Spain and Portugal recorded the largest price increases, of 148% and 161% respectively. The UK N2EX market, on the other hand, recorded the smallest increase, at 8.1%. Elsewhere, prices increased between 27% in Italy's IPEX market and 69% in the Nordic Nord Pool market,” AleaSoft Energy Forecasting wrote.

In the rest of the analyzed markets, prices ranged from €72.56/MWh in the Nordic market to €95.54/MWh in the EPEX SPOT market in the Netherlands.

The reasons for the increase in prices on European electricity markets during the week of November 6 are the growth in demand and the decline in wind energy production in Europe. AleaSoft Energy Forecasting forecasts indicate that prices in most European electricity markets could continue to rise in the third week of November. The decline in wind energy production will contribute to this development.

Brent oil futures for the FrontMonth continue the downward trend that began in July. Similar development for TTF gas futures settlement prices in the ICE market for FrontMonth. Settlement prices of CO2 emission rights futures on the EEX market for the December 2023 reference contract continued the decline that began at the end of the previous week.

In the week of November 6, changes in solar energy production in the main European electricity markets did not show a homogeneous trend compared to the previous week. Solar energy production increased by 37% in Spain, 19% in France and 12% in Portugal. The Italian and German markets recorded opposite behavior: solar energy production decreased by 7.7% and 1.7% respectively.

For the week of November 13, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting forecasts, solar energy production will increase in Spain and Italy.