EU raises 2030 renewable energy target! Wind power and photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 2 times!

2023-09-27

According to news on September 25, the EU's updated Renewable Energy Directive (RED) sets the EU's clean energy use goals and promotes the region to triple its wind power and photovoltaic installed capacity by the end of 2030 . Previously, on September 12, the European Parliament officially passed a resolution to increase the renewable energy target of EU countries in 2030 from 32% to 42.5%.

It is understood that the EU’s official announcement of a new energy efficiency directive aims to further reduce dependence on fossil fuels. Due to Europe's high dependence on external energy and insufficient renewable energy, Europe has experienced an unprecedented energy crisis since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. According to historical data, natural gas prices in Europe have reached a maximum of 10 times the pre-epidemic level. The trading price of electricity futures for delivery next year in major markets has risen to eight times that of the same period last year. In this context, the EU is bound to reduce its consumption and dependence on petrochemical energy, which will undoubtedly increase the use of new energy.

According to public data, due to the European energy crisis triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, European electricity prices have risen sharply, which has indirectly promoted the surge in my country's photovoltaic exports to the EU. In 2022, my country's photovoltaic export growth rate will be around 80%, with multiple data hitting record highs. Among them, Europe is the largest market for China's component exports, with exports accounting for more than 50% in 2022.

Although Europe has promulgated policies to promote the development of the local industrial chain and reduce China's dependence on imports of photovoltaic products, in the short to medium term, it is more difficult due to restrictions on the scale and level of local manufacturing, and it is expected that it will still take a long time to develop. Currently, it is still necessary Relying on China to help develop its photovoltaic industry.

Recently, the National Energy Administration released national power industry statistics from January to August. In terms of new energy power generation installed capacity, China's cumulative newly installed photovoltaic capacity reached 113.2GW from January to August 2023, a year-on-year increase of 154.5%, and the cumulative newly installed wind power capacity reached 28.9 GW, a year-on-year increase of 79.2%; in August, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was 16.0GW, a year-on-year increase of 137.4%, and the newly installed wind power capacity was 2.61GW, a year-on-year increase of 115.7%.

In terms of demand, the large-scale start-up and implementation of centralized photovoltaic projects provide the main growth momentum. At the same time, against the background of rising electricity prices and increasingly active power transactions, distributed demand remains strong, driving upstream shipments to continue to grow.

Since entering 2023, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity has increased significantly year-on-year. Currently, centralized ground projects have begun construction one after another. Large wind and solar bases have given strong support to the installed capacity of ground projects. The first batch of large wind and solar bases has a total planned installed capacity of 97.05GW. All construction has now started. The total planned installed capacity of the second batch is 455GW, of which 255GW is planned to be put into operation during the 14th Five-Year Plan, and 200GW is planned to be put into production during the 15th Five-Year Plan. Construction has begun one after another, and the third batch is also under planning. At the same time, against the background of rising electricity prices and increasingly active power trading , distributed demand remains strong, driving upstream shipments to continue to grow.

At the same time, the scale of newly installed wind power in China has also maintained a high year-on-year growth trend. As restrictions are gradually lifted in the future, it is expected to drive strong construction starts. The production schedule and delivery of the industrial chain in 23Q4 may be further improved. It is expected that the newly installed capacity in 2023 is expected to reach 60GW. , achieving high year-on-year growth. In terms of sea breeze construction progress, many domestic sea breeze projects have recently achieved phased construction results. Domestic sea breeze production and delivery are expected to start in October, and the industry boom may pick up. Guolian Securities (601456) predicts that the new domestic sea breeze installed capacity in 2023 is expected to reach 5-6GW. .

Guolian Securities pointed out that installed capacity grew rapidly in the first half of the year, and it has raised its forecast for photovoltaic installations for the whole year. In 2023, the scale of new domestic wind and solar installed capacity is expected to reach 235GW (wind power 60GW + photovoltaic 175GW), with wind power and photovoltaic increasing by about 60% and 100% respectively year-on-year. Against the background of strong demand, the industry chain is expected to benefit as a whole.