Rebound in solar module prices in China
The Chinese Module Marker (CMM), OPIS's benchmark assessment for modules from China, rose to $0.168/W, in a week that saw the market grapple with a weaker US dollar and rising prices. prices across the Chinese solar value chain.
This 5% rise - MMC's first move higher in nearly six months after recent all-time lows according to OPIS data - comes as most contacts reported prices around $0.17/W and noted how the dollar has depreciated in the preceding days.
Previous segments in China, from polysilicon to cells, posted gains this week, boosting module prices. China Mono Grade, OPIS's valuation for polysilicon in the country, rose for the second week in a row to 64.42 yuan/kg, or nearly $8/kg.
Multiple sources agreed that Chinese module makers are ramping up production, though they offered different reasons for this in the current low price environment.
“Demand is increasing now that prices are low,” and the third and fourth quarters are the peak sales periods for modules, one of the sources explained. Major export markets are showing a normal growth rate, according to a veteran of the solar industry. It is the smaller, barely covered markets of less than 1 GW each that, combined, are driving demand, the veteran added.
For the big, blue-chip manufacturers, increased production has "literally no correlation to demand," according to a source at one of these companies. A top-tier manufacturer can drive smaller players out of the market and gain market share by continuing to lower its prices, according to an experienced market observer.
In the future, it is unlikely that module prices will continue to rise, since the excess of manufacturers means intense competition in this sector, many contacts agree. "To snatch orders, companies will choose to forego benefits," a source explained. Echoing this sentiment, another source said there isn't much profit left to be made, but it would be nice if prices stabilized at least.
OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides energy prices, news, data and analysis on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG/LNG, coal, metals and chemicals, as well as renewable fuels and environmental commodities. In 2022 it acquired the price data assets of the Singapore Solar Exchange and now publishes the OPIS APAC Solar Weekly Report .
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